Marquee mound matchup on tap in Angels-A's tilt

Baseball Betting Lines

09/04/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- This afternoon's showdown between the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Oakland Athletics may have little effect on the American League playoff race, but fans attending the Coliseum today should be treated to a top-notch pitching matchup between a pair of All-Stars.

The Angels' sputtering offense will have to go up against A's standout Trevor Cahill in the second test of this three-game series, while the three-time defending AL West champions counter with ace Jered Weaver in hopes of evening this set and avenging last night's 8-0 loss to their division rival.

Cahill has been marvelous in his second major league season, with the talented youngster having compiled a 14-6 record along with a 2.82 earned run average over 24 starts. He's been especially tough on the Coliseum mound, having gone 8-2 with a sensational 1.84 ERA in 11 outings and limiting the opposition to a meager .194 batting average.

The right-hander will have to bounce back from a subpar showing in his most recent appearance, however, a four-inning stint on the road against the New York Yankees on Monday in which Cahill was rocked for eight runs and nine hits and served up a pair of homers. Prior to that defeat, he had posted a 5-1 record and an 0.77 ERA over a six-start stretch from July 28-August 25 and worked at least seven innings in each of those games.

Cahill will be seeking a third straight winning start against the Angels at the Coliseum. The 22-year-old yielded just one run in eight innings in a home victory over Anaheim on June 10, then held the Halos to an unearned run and five hits through seven strong frames a month later.

In six career starts versus the Angels, Cahill is 3-1 with an excellent 2.09 ERA.

Oakland's emerging ace will get to face an Anaheim team that's mustered only 11 runs while losing five of its last seven games and was shut out for the third time in a week with Friday's verdict. The Angels could manage a mere five hits against Gio Gonzalez and three A's relievers in last night's setback.

Gonzalez (13-8) worked the first six innings and allowed just four hits and three walks while fanning six batters, with Michael Wuertz, Henry Rodriguez and Brad Ziegler combining to let up only one hit the rest of the way.

The victory halted a string of four straight losses for the Athletics and enabled them to gain some ground on first-place Texas in the AL West, although the Rangers still own a comfortable nine-game lead in the standings.

"We wanted a win tonight," said Gonzalez afterward. "We wanted to stop the bleeding. Our bats were swinging today, we were hot. We felt good and it was good to be back home."

Oakland had a 2-0 lead after the first six innings, then scored six times in the seventh to break open the contest. Kevin Kouzmanoff and Cliff Pennington each belted two-run homers during the outburst, with Rajai Davis and Gabe Gross contributing RBI singles.

Angels starter Scott Kazmir (8-13) was able to hold the Athletics to two runs despite walking a season-high six batters in his 5 2/3-inning stint, with Oakland registering only two hits off the left-hander.

"Once I was able to keep the direction toward home plate, it felt a little easier to throw the ball where I wanted," said Kazmir of his performance.

Weaver will take the ball today seeking to end a personal three-start losing streak. Although the competitive right-hander didn't pitch well in two of those defeats, he's received no help from his club's punchless offense as well, as the Angels were shut out in each of those three games.

The 27-year-old was outstanding in Sunday's tough-luck 1-0 loss to Baltimore, permitting just the one run and five hits in eight innings. Weaver also struck out 11 Orioles on the day to run his season total to 200, tied with Seattle's Felix Hernandez for the most in the majors this year.

Weaver hasn't been as sharp when he's pitched at the Coliseum this year, however. The former first-round draft choice was tagged for six runs and 12 hits over six innings in a lopsided road loss to the A's on June 8, and surrendered five runs in six frames while being outdueled by Cahill in a June 11 clash held in Oakland.

In 14 career starts against the Athletics, Weaver is 3-5 with a 3.42 ERA.

These two AL West foes have split 14 meetings thus far in 2010, with Oakland having prevailed in five of eight bouts held at the Coliseum.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.