CFL East: Trying to separate fact from fiction

Football Betting Lines

07/16/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Hamilton and Winnipeg preoccupied with each other and Montreal being Montreal, the Toronto Argonauts are finding themselves in a division trying to find itself.

A contradicting start to the season has caused some fog in the East, with pretenders playing contenders, and sleepers, well ... sleeping.

TORONTO ARGONAUTS

The Argos woke up before everyone else this week, charging up on a home opener at the Rogers Centre to upset Calgary and improve to 2-1. Toronto's second straight win leaves the Boatman alone at the top of the East, and has given the club some rare wiggle room.

Anytime teams such as the Argos, who have had the league's worst offense and have missed the playoffs for the last two seasons, realize early success, proceed with caution.

It's a simple approach to not being fooled by a team's ability to temporarily suppress bad habits and rise to the occasion. But this Argos team - no matter the likelihood it has trouble maintaining this early success - is not the same one as past editions.

New coach Jim Barker has the Double Blue playing a new brand of football, one that comes from behind and wins close games.

With a quarterback controversy on paper all but erased - for now - former NFL signal-caller Cleo Lemon has emerged as Barker's man and looks as though he will be given the opportunity to grow into the game up north.

For the Argos, it's better than going south.

In light of the early game this week, here are Toronto's key players from the 27-24 win over Calgary in Week 3:

Offensive performer: Cory Boyd. Another man benefiting from a new voice calling the plays has been rookie running back Boyd (20 carries, 142 yards), who has strung together consecutive 100-yard games.

Defensive/special teams: Kevin Eiben. In his 11th year with the Boatman, Eiben continues to be a factor on the defensive end. After registering 11 tackles opening night in Calgary, the linebacker picked off two passes against Winnipeg in Week 2 and was a big reason the Argos beat Calgary in the second meeting of the two teams.

Next up: BC Lions. If the Argos can contain the run, the Boatman should improve to 3-1.

MONTREAL ALOUETTES

It would be easy to say the Alouettes are primed to take a step back after a crushing defeat to open the season and then needing a 15-point fourth quarter to beat Edmonton. It also would be wrong.

Pedigree aside, the signs are there that perhaps the older the core of this roster gets, the less the regular season matters.

The defending champs aren't doing things with as much ease this season as in the past, but a game at BC can turn the situation around quickly.

That's, of course, if your name isn't the Montreal Alouettes. The league's true power over the last few seasons hasn't fared well in the Lions' Den, having gone winless at BC since 2001.

Despite their struggles, expect the streak to stop and the Als get back at the top.

Another thing to expect? Week 3's potential impact players:

Offensive performer: Kerry Watkins. If there's one team who could possibly stop Watkins, it might just be the Lions. Watkins has 158 yards on eight catches and three touchdowns this season, but should be in tough against the league's stingiest defense.

Defense performer: John Bowman. He tied for the league lead in 2009 with sacks, but the defensive stalwart has been a non-factor this year. Look for the Lions to wake him up.

Next up: Someone in scheduling likes the Als, given their three-game home stand beginning next week against Hamilton. Here come the Alouettes.

WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS

A late comeback by the Toronto Argonauts is the only thing preventing the Bombers from being atop the East with a chance to go 3-0.

Fortunes weren't so kind to Winnipeg after all, as it squandered a golden opportunity against Toronto to get an early lead in what is shaping up to be a competitive division.

Just as few foresaw Hamilton's poor start, the same can be said for the Blue Bombers, albeit in a more positive light.

After trudging through a couple seasons of mediocrity, new coach Paul LaPolice must be pleased with what he's been given - an early offensive juggernaut with the confidence of a playoff team.

Whether they can sustain this type of production on the offensive end (their scoring differential of plus-18 is good for second in the CFL) will play itself out as the Bombers' schedule gets tougher.

For now, first-year Bombers quarterback Buck Pierce will likely continue to do what he's doing (42 of 60 for 657 yards and five touchdowns), giving Winnipeg a chance to outscore any opponent on any given night.

Offensive performer: Buck Pierce. After throwing to the other team more than his own last season (12 interceptions to 10 touchdowns), Pierce seems to have found a comfort zone in Winnipeg. If that's not enough, he completed 68 percent of his passes with two TDs and a 133.9 QB rating in Week 1 versus Hamilton, who the Bombers play again this week.

Defensive/special teams: Jovon Johnson. In his fifth year in the league, the cornerback out of the University of Iowa has proved to be a sparkplug on the defensive end. Johnson, who picked off CFL quarterbacks six times last year, has been solid on special teams in 2010, returning 14 punts for a total of 114 yards.

Next up: First their rematch with Hamilton and then home to face Edmonton. Winnipeg must take advantage of this weak stretch before the schedule gets tougher.

HAMILTON TIGER-CATS

The Ti-Cats can't move any further down the standings, but they can move further away from the pack.

Although Hamilton remains winless and at the bottom of the East, there's reason to believe it can still turn this season around and mimic the contending team that many predicted in the preseason.

After a tough loss on the road in Week 1 against an inspired Winnipeg squad, Hamilton didn't show up for the second half last week against Calgary and now must navigate through a tough part of the schedule.

Offensive performer: Kevin Glenn followed up a dismal opener in carving up the Stampeders' secondary for 356 yards on 26-of-34 passing.

Defensive/special teams: About the only bright spot for Hamilton this year has been the steady play of linebacker Jamall Johnson, whose size and speed creates havoc for offensive players in the middle. His 18 tackles lead the league and should help shrink the field for Pierce and the Bombers' offense this week.

Next up: After Winnipeg, the Ti-Cats hit the road for back-to-back contests versus Montreal and Saskatchewan. Suddenly, Week 3 is looking like a must-win for Hamilton.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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